Chapter 2: Flop

Three Things to Look at First on the Flop

You look at your own hand only after these three

① Range advantage

Across the two ranges as a whole, which side is stronger on average. On an A-high board, it is decided by how many A the raiser holds.

② Nut advantage

Which side holds more top-class hands. Even a side that is behind on average can bet big if it holds more of the nuts.

③ Equity distribution

How the strong hands and weak hands are spread out. If the whole range is middling, there is no reason to bet big.

What these three decide

• The more range advantage you have, the more often you can bet (you can push with the whole range)
• The more nut advantage you have, the bigger the size you can choose (your opponent has nothing above you)

Looking at the Equity Distribution

Even with the same “advantage,” a different shape changes how you fight

A conceptual diagram of equity distribution (not measured data)

• Raiser
• Caller

Left: the raiser has the advantage

• The raiser is ahead from the top to the bottom
• A shape where you can push with the whole range
• → A small size, at a high frequency

Right: the advantage disappears

• The top (the nuts) is held by the caller
• The raiser has many in-between hands
• → Raise the check frequency a lot

What matters is not “whether you are ahead” but “where you are ahead.” Even with 55% average equity, if your opponent holds all of the nuts, you must not bet big. This comparison is why you need the preflop range chart.

Range Advantage and Nut Advantage

Mix them up and you choose the wrong size

	Range advantage	Nut advantage
Meaning	Average strength	Number of top-class hands
What it decides	Bet frequency	Bet size
Both	The raiser on A♠7♦2♣	High frequency + small to medium size
Either, but not both	The raiser on K♥8♥3♥	Lower the frequency; bet big only when you have it
Neither	The raiser on 7♥6♥5♣	Mostly check. Be ready to fold

How to remember it: range advantage decides frequency, and nut advantage decides size. “Bet big because you have the advantage” is the typical mistake of mixing these two.

UnderstandUnderstand this. It is not a table to memorize; learn to break each spot down along these two axes every time.

A-High Dry

A♠7♦2♣ / the board that favors the raiser most

A♠7♦2♣

Range advantage ◎ / Nut advantage ◎

The moment an A lands, the raiser can hold every A-x. The caller can hold only the A it did not 3bet. This asymmetry is the biggest gap on any board.

The raiser’s side

• Holds many A-x in the range
• The opponent can hardly hold an A
• Can push with both strong and weak hands

The caller’s side

• Even in the BB, most A-x does not go to the 3bet side
• Middle pairs and weak draws make up most of the range
• A large number of hands can only fold

The conclusion on how to fight

• A small size (25–33%), at a high frequency
• Push with the whole range. Bluffs are cheap too

Broadway Dry

K♠8♦3♣ / a smaller gap than A-high

K♠8♦3♣

Range advantage ○ / Nut advantage ○

On K-high, the structure “almost only the raiser holds an A” remains. But the opponent can hold a K too, so it is not as one-sided as A-high.

The difference from A-high

• The caller also holds a fair amount of K-x
• AA and AK are concentrated on the raiser’s side, the same as before
• The gap shrinks, but the advantage continues

Points to watch

• Playing on after being called with K-x is difficult
• Hands that connect with the 8 or the 3 are common for the opponent

The conclusion on how to fight

• A small size, at a high frequency. But a lower frequency than on A-high
• Decide your plan for the turn and later first

Low Connected

7♥6♥5♣ / the board where the advantage flips

7♥6♥5♣

Range advantage △ / Nut advantage ×

Hands like 56, 78 and 87 are not raised preflop. So the nuts are only on the caller’s side. Pushing on here is one of the most common leaks.

Why it becomes unfavorable

• Straights and two pair are more common on the caller’s side
• The raiser’s broadway hands all miss
• Even an overpair is not safe

What not to do

• Pushing because you assume you have range advantage
• Continuing to bluff with AK

The conclusion on how to fight

• Raise the check frequency a lot
• If you bet, use a big size and narrow your hands

Paired Board

9♠9♦4♣ / neither side has hit

9♠9♦4♣

Range advantage ○ / Nut advantage △

On a paired board, both players understand that “nobody has hit.” That is why just a small bet can make them fold. Against an opponent who does not fold, on the other hand, simply stopping your bluffs makes a profit.

Structure

• Both players hit rarely
• Many hands fold, so bluffs get through easily
• Neither side has many trips

How to choose bluffs

• Start from hands with zero showdown value
• Bluff with hands that do not hold a 9 (unblockers)

The conclusion on how to fight

• A small size, at a high frequency
• If the opponent folds too much, raise the frequency further

Monotone

K♥8♥3♥ / who can hold the nuts

K♥8♥3♥

Range advantage ○ / Nut advantage ×

On a monotone board, “few hands are completed, but the nuts are already fixed.” Even if you bet big, the opponents you want to fold (flushes) do not fold. Designing the frequency matters more than the size.

Structure

• Both sides have few flushes
• The side holding the A♥ takes the initiative
• A bare A♥ is strong as a blocker

Common failures

• Continuing to bet big with top pair
• Barreling while ignoring that a flush has completed

The conclusion on how to fight

• Lower the frequency and check more
• If you bet, keep the size down

Two-Tone, Middle

J♠7♠2♦ / the shape where decisions split the most

J♠7♠2♦

Range advantage ○ / Nut advantage ○

On a board with draws, there is value in denying your opponent’s equity (deny). This is why, even with the same advantage, the best size differs from a dry board.

Structure

• The raiser holds J-x and overpairs
• There are many draws, and equity is fluid
• The picture changes a lot on the turn

How to think about size

• Bigger if you want to make draws fold
• Smaller if you push with the whole range
• Decide which one first

The conclusion on how to fight

• A typical board for using two sizes
• Decide it as a set with your plan for the turn

SPR: The Upper Limit of How Far You Can Fight

The moment you reach the flop, the depth of the contest is already set

SPR = effective stack ÷ pot. Calculate it at the flop and use it as the standard for commitment.

SPR	Example situation	Hands you can commit with (est.)
1 – 2	4bet pot	Top pair or better gets the stack in
3 – 4	3bet pot	Overpairs, top pair with a strong kicker
5 – 7	Single-raised pot	Two pair or better. Top pair for 1 – 2 bets
8 or more	Limped pot, deep	Sets or better. Hands with nut potential have the edge

How to use it

• The lower the SPR, the more the decision becomes “get it in or fold” rather than hand strength
• The higher the SPR, the more nut potential (sets, flushes, straights) is worth
• The reason to play suited connectors preflop is limited to when the SPR is high

The Steps for Flop Decisions

Break it down in this order every time

• ① Classify the board (dry / connected / paired / monotone)
• ② Which side has range advantage (this decides bet frequency)
• ③ Which side has nut advantage (this decides bet size)
• ④ Where your hand sits in your range (top, middle, bottom)
• ⑤ What the SPR is (how far you can fight)
• ⑥ Decide your plan for the turn and later first

What matters is that ④ does not come first. If you look at your own hand first, you can no longer think in ranges.